C. W. Hoy (State Representative), S. A. Miller, L. R. Nault, L. Beanland, J. Zhang, X. Zhou Ohio Agricultural Research and Development
Center
We have developed a mathematical model of aster yellows epidemiology to explore strategies for managing this important disease of vegetable crops. The model simulates yellows epidemics in fields of lettuce, celery, and carrots. Epidemics are started by immigrating aster leafhoppers, Macrosteles quadrilineatus Forbes, and are influenced by subsequent population dynamics and phytoplasma transmission. Leafhopper movement after arrival in the vegetable growing area influences two critical rates in the epidemiological model: the rate at which uninfected leafhoppers acquire the phytoplasma and the rate at which inoculative leafhoppers transmit the phytoplasma to uninfected plants. Both rates depend on two scales of movement, interplant and interfield. Spatial effects have been included in the simulation model, using transition probabilities for movement among plantings and considering movement within plantings in transmission rates. Model predictions were compared with observed aster yellows in a large-scale field validation experiment. Treatments were season-long control strategies in one-acre blocks that were divided into 24 plots, 6 plots of each of the following crops: lettuce (susceptible), carrots (susceptible), collards (not susceptible), and sweet corn (not susceptible). A strategy that included cultural controls and reduced insecticide application was compared with the conventional schedule of insecticide applications for aster leafhopper and an untreated check. Model predictions that were consistent with observations were the ranking among strategies and disease incidence in the later plantings of lettuce. Observed disease incidence was higher than that predicted for the earlier plantings. Disease incidence at harvest decreased over the six plantings; it was predicted to increase. We suspect that higher than expected rates of immigration of inoculative leafhoppers resulted in the additional infection in the early plantings. Conclusions were that we need effective monitoring of arriving migrants. It is important to determine not only the proportion infected and inoculative, but also when immigration ends because an integrated control strategy appears feasible in the absence of immigrating inoculative leafhoppers.
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